Thursday, October 22, 2015

2015 Skate America Preview

The first Grand Prix event of the season gets underway this week! In anticipation of the competition in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we're taking a look at the podium contenders, the potential upsets, and the up-and-comers to look out for in each discipline. Happy watching!

Ladies

The ladies field looks to provide an entertaining competition. The U.S. looks to 2014 National Champion Gracie Gold as their biggest threat for a win, but the field will be a challenge for her. 2015 World silver medalist Satoko Miyahara, 2015 World Junior champion Evgenia Medvedeva, and 2014 European Champion Julia Lipnitskaia are also aiming for a win here, while there are many other skaters that could sneak in for a medal if the favorites falter.

Satoko Miyahara is one of the leading names coming into this event. Although Miyahara is well-known for her connection and movement to the music she listens to, she can struggle to get the PCS that reflects this. Part of this issue is because her jumps are very small, and she sometimes can get dinged with underrotations. However, she is still one of the few skaters that can combine high technical content with superb artistry, and she is also quite consistent. Coming off of a win at the U.S. International Classic and a second place finish behind Mao Asada at the Japan Open, I believe Miyahara will be a huge threat to win her first Grand Prix title.


If Gracie Gold is clean, she should be able to win this competition easily. However, her nerves are a major issue for her, and her consistency cannot be relied on. Although she had a very solid competition at Glacier Falls, she finished last at the Japan Open. Her programs this year are some of the best she has had, and though she has been criticized for her artistry, she is working to change that perception. While I am unsure that Gold will be able to be clean in both programs here - something she needs to do - I do believe that if she is, she will win.


Evgenia Medvedeva is known for her incredible technical ability, which she typically performs consistently. Although her skating is still not as polished as some of her competitors here, she is definitely getting closer to that level. It is also worth noting that her programs are very backloaded: all of her jumps in the SP, including a triple-triple combination, are in the second half. In addition, she often performs multiple Tano jumps even in the same program. Medvedeva knows how to work the point system, and with her coming off a win at the Ondrej Nepela trophy, I think she has the momentum going for her to do well in her senior Grand Prix debut.


Elizabet Tursynbaeva is another skater making her senior Grand Prix debut, and I think she is also a major threat to the podium. Coached by Brian Orser, the 15-year-old made a splash all summer and fall, winning the silver medal at the U.S. International Classic, and the gold at the Autumn Classic International. She also has strong technical content, and her connection to her music is very solid for someone her age. Although her programs may overpower her at times, she also has that X-factor in her skating that draws you in and makes you want to want to watch her. Keep an eye out for Tursynbaeva, as she could easily sneak into the medals. 


Julia Lipnitskaia has struggled since her incredible 2013-2014 season, and she is looking to really start a comeback here. She changed choreographers from Ilia Averbukh to Marina Zueva this season, and wants to regain her former technical prowess. She won the silver medal at the Finlandia Trophy, but was not up to par, and is still struggling with her jumps and technique. Although she is in the mix for the title, it will have to take a massive effort for Lipnitskaia to win here. She will have to skate the best she has skated since the 2014 Grand Prix Final SP.


Top 5 Predictions: Satoko Miyahara, Gracie Gold, Evgenia Medvedeva, Elizabet Tursynbaeva, Julia Lipnitskaia

Photo Credit: Zimbio, Tumblr, Skating-Rimitca

-Bronwyn

Men

The men's discipline may be the most unpredictable of the four. US champion Jason Brown, World bronze medalist Denis Ten, and Junior World champion Shoma Uno will all be competing for a medal. In the mix also is Takahito Mura, the 2014 Skate Canada champion, and Han Yan, the 2015 Four Continents bronze medalist. However, all of these men will be battling their own demons and facing immense pressure in a field packed with talent. 

Denis Ten of Kazakhastan is, by anyone's standard, an incredibly gifted skater. At his best, he is Olympic- and World-medal-worthy, as we have already seen in the past. But according to coach Frank Caroll, Ten is still recovering from injuries that forced him to withdraw from the Skate Canada Autumn Classic International and is not yet in form. He has been landing clean quad toes in practice, but the question is whether he will be able to do so under the pressure of competition. Only time will tell to whether his recovery will continue to impact him mentally as he embarks on the competitive season, but as it stands he is the most seasoned of the bunch.



Shoma Uno, the reigning Japanese national silver medalist, will be making his debut on the senior Grand Prix. After a disappointing and somewhat uncharacteristic performance at the US International Classic, Uno bounced back with a foot-perfect free skate at the Japan Open, placing first ahead of heavyweights such as reigning World champion Javier Fernandez and three-time World champion Patrick Chan. Uno has solid technique, although his triple lutz occasionally causes issues, and maturity well beyond his years. He is favored to win a medal here at Skate America, but only his ability to deliver away from home ice, on which he seems the most comfortable, can decide what color it will be.



US leading man Jason Brown has some very specific goals coming into this competition. As the reigning champion competing on home ice, he will be looking to clinch a win, but we may not see him as consistent as he's been in past seasons. Brown's focus as of late has been putting his quad toe into competition, but this strategy could prove costly as he has yet to land a clean, rotated one in competition. Still, Brown is a fighter and a determined skater, not to mention a crowd favorite with his charismatic programs--if he can put it all together, the title could be his.



An on-and-off skater the past season, with placements ranging anywhere from winning a Grand Prix event to placing 16th at Worlds, Takahito Mura of Japan is nonetheless one to consider for a potential upset. At his best, Mura is a capable, well-rounded skater, but costly mistakes tend to affect not only his scores but his confidence. This year his "Dark Eyes" short program was choreographed by ice dancer Charlie White, which could mean a boost in PCS as Mura pays more attention to the artistic side of his skating.



Not to be counted out either is Han Yan of China, who tends to be a late bloomer in terms of peaking later in the season. However, he may be trying to turn his reputation around and build consistency, which is always valued by the judges and tends to be rewarded as such. Han's advantage over the other men may be the explosive quality of his jumps, in particular his triple axel, which are both impressive to watch and reflected by high GOEs. Like Brown, Han also tends to be a crowd favorite due to the personality he injects into his programs. 


As a testament to the immense depth of the men's field, we have to mention yet another list of names to keep an eye out for! Konstantin Menshov, the oldest competitor at age 32, is not to be brushed aside, especially since he just proved he's still got it by placing 3rd and 1st, respectively, at the Nebelhorn and Finlandia Trophies. Max Aaron and Ross Miner, the other two Americans, are also no small threat to the top-tier men, especially with the former's new focus on musicality and the latter's strong performance at the US International Classic, where he won the short program over Alexei Bychenko (ISR), who is also competing here. Brendan Kerry of Australia, in his GP debut, will be looking to cement his status as the most promising Australian man in recent memory. All in all, this field looks to be a nail-biter!

Top 5 Predictions: Denis Ten, Jason Brown, Shoma Uno, Takahito Mura, Han Yan 

-Kathy

Photo credit: Europe On Ice, Zimbio, CBC


Ice Dance

What I love about this ice dance field is that each pair that comprises the field have their own goals to achieve and impressions they want to make. Each team has a different story for the season, as we see the emergence of teams like Yanovskaya/Mozgov (RUS) and Nazarova/Nikitin (UKR) in the circuit, budding ice dancers looking to make a splash on the senior scene. We have Wang/Liu (CHN), a team that possesses lovely qualities and hopes to make sure China is not overlooked in the ice dance discussion. We also have teams like Cannuscio/McManus (USA), Hawayek/Baker (USA), and Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS), who are all trapped within the depth of their respective country's ice dance fields and know that to make their World Championship teams, they, especially the aforementioned American teams who must face the powerful Chock/Bates (USA) both in Milwaukee and in St. Paul for U.S. Nationals, have to start making their international mark now.

As the frontrunners and favorites for gold coming into this competition, Madison Chock and Evan Bates, in all honesty, do not need to put their absolute best performances on display this weekend. Sure, many teams will vie to challenge them, but no other team in this competition is as decorated or seasoned as Madi and Evan are. This does not mean, though, that Chock and Bates should rest on their laurels. This weekend, they must prove their versatility as a team to the judges, since their Dark Eyes SD and Rachmaninoff No. 2 FD are far different from their programs last season. This year's programs, while still highlighting their particular strengths in performance/execution and interpretation, require a different kind of projection and driving purpose that may prove to be a challenge for this team. If any team is to do it, though, it's Chock and Bates.



Three-time Canadian medalists Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier enter Milwaukee with an air of confidence, fresh off of their win at the 2015 Ondrej Nepela Trophy. Though their scores there weren't quite where they may have been hoping for, I think that it still is a good place for them to be at this point in the season. I really enjoy their free dance; the concept is strong, and they've incorporated a lot of originality and unconventionality in their skills and movement. We will see how they progress.



These two teams are the class of the field on paper, but many other teams, like Yanovskaya/Mozgov, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, and Nazarova/Nikitin, could certainly make a run for the podium, which would be a wonderful springboard for the senior careers of each of these teams. Skate America is always such a wonderful preview of a slew of fantastic programs that we'll view throughout the season, and is indicative of the potential of certain skaters, especially first time seniors. This Skate America will be no exception. (Clockwise, from left: Nazarova/Nikitin, Yanovskaya/Mozgov, Sinitsina/Katsalapov)



Top 5 Predictions: Chock/Bates, Gilles/Poirier, Yanovskaya/Mozgov, Hawayek/Baker, Sinitsina/Katsalapov

-Will

Photo Credit: European Pressphoto Agency, IceNetwork, insideskating.com, goldenskate.com

Pairs

The pairs field is also packed with talent. Favored to win gold are reigning World silver medalists Sui/Han of China, who are armed with a quad twist and a throw quad salchow which may give them a technical edge over their competitors. In addition to their difficult elements, Sui/Han possess a unique dynamic that is both youthful and expressive, which usually translates to high program component scores. Skate America will be Sui/Han's first international event of the season, but they were able to debut two polished new programs at a domestic competition over the summer.



Reigning Grand Prix Final silver medalists Stolbova/Klimov will be looking to make a comeback of sorts at this event. Last season they opted not to compete at Worlds after a disappointing performance at the European Championships, citing a focus on long-term goals as the reason. The Russian pair currently appear to be in good form, as they're coming off of a recent win at the Ondrej Nepela Trophy, but their programs in Bratislava were not without flaws. They will need to deliver their best and skate clean if they hope to challenge Sui/Han for the title.



Also in the running for a medal here are US champions Scimeca/Knierim, who began their season with a second-place finish at the Nebelhorn Trophy after rallying from a fourth-place short program. At last year's Skate America, they narrowly missed the the podium by placing fourth, and are no doubt hoping to improve on that result. This is a team that has been relatively less consistent in the past couple of seasons, but at their best Scimeca/Knierim can certainly be a formidable presence, especially in their home country.



Another pair to keep an eye out for are US bronze medalists Kayne/O'Shea, who are fresh off of their first international win at the US International Figure Skating Classic. Skate America is actually Kayne/O'Shea's first-ever Grand Prix event, after they were forced to withdraw from their assignments last season due to injury. But what they lack in experience, they certainly make up for in ambition. The team is also planning a throw quad salchow in their free skate, set to the familiar Phantom of the Opera Soundtrack. It will be most interesting to see how Kayne/O'Shea transitions from smaller Senior B events (at which they've historically been successful) to a high-stakes stage such as this one.



More up-and-comers include Wang/Wang of China, a country with a well-known track record of producing talented pair teams, Seguin/Bilodeau of Canada, who are the reigning Junior World silver medalists and placed a promising fifth at the Nebelhorn Trophy, and Astakhova/Rogonov of Russia, who were second at Ondrej Nepela Trophy but bested teammates Stolbova/Klimov by a narrow margin in the free skate.

Top 5 Predictions: Sui/Han, Stolbova/Klimov, Scimeca/Knierim, Kayne/O'Shea, Astakhova/Rogonov

-Kathy

Photo credit: IceNetwork, Golden Skate, Zimbio

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